结论
即使在噪音存在的时候,互惠性仍然起着作用,但这要取决于两点:要么存在宽容(当对方莫名其妙地采取背叛策略后仍有产生合作的机会),要么存在悔悟(一方实施背叛以后,另一方也以背叛来报复,然后重新开始合作)。巴甫洛夫策略(当得到一个极差的结果以后改变自己原来的选择)并不具备稳健性。
宽容策略可以给博弈双方的错误提供纠正的机会,而悔悟策略则只能纠正某一方的错误。于是,当一个人面对大量博弈对手时,如果他们还没有适应噪音存在的话,那么宽容的一报还一报策略会是比较有效的策略。另一方面,如果可能面对的对手已经适应噪音了,那么悔悟性一报还一报策略会更加有效。因为它能最快地纠正错误从而使得互惠合作及时得到恢复。
注释:
[1]最近的对有噪音的囚徒困境及其他相关博弈的理论研究和模拟研究可以参见:Bendor et al.,1991;Bendor,1993;Boyd,1989;Fudenberg and Maskin,1990;Godfray,1992;Kollock,1993;Lindgren,1991;Nowak and Sigmund,1992,1993;Young and Foster,1991。早期相关研究的一个评述可以参见:Axelrod and Dion,1988。
[2]为了保证结果的稳定性,我们把整个竞赛进行了20次,最终得分是这20轮得分的平均。
[3]与巴甫洛夫策略相遇时,如果噪音的比例很低,如果轮流获得欺骗和被欺骗的收益高于总是获得合作的收益,那么采取总是背叛的策略会获得更高的收益。如果用正规的表示方法,T表示欺骗时的收益,P表示被欺骗时的收益,R表示互惠合作时的收益,w表示噪音的概率。T+wP>R+wR或者w<(T-R)/(R-P)时,用总是背叛的策略对应巴甫洛夫策略就会得到更好的结果。比如T=5,R=3,P=1,在一切w<1的情况下,背叛总是更好的策略。
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(1) 转引自Jiangzhong Wu and Robert Axelrod,“How to Cope with Noise in the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma,”Journal of Conflict Resolution 39,no.1(Mar.1995):183-189。转引经授权,授权方:Sage Publications,Inc.。